Labour’s Election Prospects Shrinking

In our poll last month, Represent Us showed that the Conservatives would lose a quarter of their support if they failed to deliver Brexit by the 31st October. In our new poll, again carried out by ICM, that Conservative loss has halved. Brexit party voters now appear more won over by Johnson’s assurance that he is trying and that he will deliver and less now would desert him if an extension happens.

Labour’s vote is unchanged which, under the unforgiving First Past the Post system, means they can expect significantly less seats. This trend is likely to intensify over the next turbulent weeks as Johnson grandstands and plays the press; and so it is increasingly hard to see how going for an election now would do anything other than hurt Labour’s chances. 

An ‘Alliance’?

As if this news wasn’t bad enough for Labour, we’ve also polled the likely impact of an alliance along the lines of our Open Letter Campaign  We asked how people would vote if all the explicitly remain parties worked together at a General Election after any extension.  

There are discussions, such as those being organised by Unite to Remain, already going on to make this happen in time for any General Election; and our poll shows why this should worry Labour. 

Coming a poor third is not going to get it anywhere close to power.

The results are far more potent than just adding together the vote share that they had before. Something more profound is going on. Working as an alliance, they gain even more support, mainly from Labour, demonstrating the desire from voters for the opposition parties to work together, even amongst Labour’s own supporters.

That seems to be supported by the Open Letter signatures, almost a quarter of who support Labour, who isn’t even addressed in the letter! And these voters appear willing to change their support to such an alliance if it happens.

If there’s one message Labour should take from all of these polls: it’s that this just isn’t a good time for an election. 

Polling Data – Summary, Full Tables

Press coverage:
The Independent

ICM Unlimited own coverage